:Product: 20041214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels again today. 
Region 711 (N13W74) underwent a slight decay in sunspot area during
the period while the weak gamma magnetic structure remained intact. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 15 December.  Active
conditions may occur beginning late on 16 December and continuing
through 17 December due to a recurrent geoeffective coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 089
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  005/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  005/005-010/012-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor storm           01/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10