:Product: 20041218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Two CME's were observed
on LASCO imagery, one at 18/0936Z and the other at 18/1024Z.  These
CME's were most likely farside events.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a small chance for C-class flares from Regions 712 (S10E37)
and 713 (S10E59).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor
storming at high latitudes.  Active to minor storm periods due to
the continued influence of a geoeffective high speed coronal hole
stream.  Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately
640 km/s to 530 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 091
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  090/095/100
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  006/010-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01