:Product: 20041220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 713 (S09E34) has
grown in white light area coverage to over 200 millionths and has
developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 713 could possibly produce an isolated C-class
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods are
possible on 22 December due to the influence of a recurrent coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 094
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  008/010-015/020-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05