:Product: 20041222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 22 2350 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 713 (S10E07) produced a
C2/Sf event at 22/2025 UTC.  This region has went relatively
unchanged and retains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  A new
region was numbered today as Region 714 (S04W01).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm conditions.  The ACE
solar wind data suggest the possible influence of a high speed solar
wind stream.  In the past 24 hours the solar wind velocity has
steadily increased from around 400 km/s to above 550 km/s with
southward fluctuating Bz, and low density.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active
conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 099
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  012/015-010/010-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05