:Product: 20041223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 713 (S08W06) produced
several C-class events.  The largest was a C5 at 23/1008 UTC.  This
flare was optically correlated with the GOES X-ray imager data.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on 26 December with the affects from a recurrent coronal
hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 096
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  012/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  010/010-012/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05