:Product: 20041224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single C1, long duration
x-ray flare occurred at 0356UTC from a spotless area in the
southeast quadrant. Both spotted regions, 713 (S08W21) and 714
(S03W30), were quiet and stable. A lengthy filament disappeared from
the northwest quadrant early in the day.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active. A recurrent
high-speed solar wind stream is due in the next 24-36 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 097
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  010/010-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01