:Product: 20041225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 713 (S09W36) has
decreased in both area and spot number.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity from Region 713.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated period of
minor storming from 0300Z to 0600Z on 25 December.  Active
conditions due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 093
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  015/018-015/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05