:Product: 20041226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 713 (S08W47)
produced a B9.9 flare at 26/1240Z.  Region 713 is still in a decay
phase.  A long duration B4.3 flare was observed on SXI imagery at
26/1929Z from a spotless plage region at S16E40.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class activity from Region 713.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The solar wind speed
is still elevated around 500 km/s due to the continued influence of
a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods at high latitudes on 27 December.  Expect quiet to unsettled
on 28 and 29 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 092
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  008/010-006/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01