:Product: 20050110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 719 (S08E55)
remains a two-spot beta magnetic configuration, with several minor
plage fluctuations.  Region 718 (S07E46) continues to show no
notable activity.  Region 720 (N09E69) was newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 719 continues to have a fair chance for flare
activity, but poses little threat for greater than an isolated
C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.  Interplanetary
magnetic field and solar wind have both been relatively steady for
the last 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  No significant
disturbance anticipated for 11 Jan, but a large coronal hole is
moving into geoeffective position for 12 and 13 Jan.  Most of the
high-speed solar wind stream will be above Earth's orbit, and should
only provide a slight potential for active to isolated minor
storming levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 090
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/008-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05