:Product: 20050119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W56) produced
an X1/2n flare at 19/0822 UTC. This flare was similar to previous
major flares in this region with strong radio output and a CME
directed mostly to the northwest. Further decay in the region has
occurred, although it remains fairly large and magnetically complex.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 720 retains the potential for another major
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic disturbance remained in progress at the active to
severe storm level. The greater than 100 MeV proton event has ended:
start 17/1215 UTC, 28 pfu peak at 17/1700 UTC, and end 18/2205 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress but is
decaying: start 16/0210 UTC and 5040 pfu peak at 17/1750 UTC. Proton
fluxes have decreased enough for the GOES electron sensors and ACE
SWEPAM instruments to again provide reliable data. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at active to severe storm levels. Storm
intensity is expected to taper off over the next 48 hours, as is the
10 MeV proton event, barring another significant solar event in
Region 720.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/90/80
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 133
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  130/120/110
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  035/072
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  050/080
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  040/050-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           60/50/30
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/40
Minor storm           70/60/50
Major-severe storm    25/20/10