:Product: 20050124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.  All
three spotted active regions were responsible for the low level
B-class flare activity reported throughout the period.  Region 727
(S09E38) was numbered today and is undergoing rapid growth in
penumbral coverage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Continued growth in Region 727 may lead to
C-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 095
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  006/008-005/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01