:Product: 20050202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 727 (S08W84) is
rotating quietly around the west limb. Region 729 (S10W10), the only
other sunspot group on the visible disk, is in slow decay. No
significant activity was observed on the visible disk or limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels on 03 and 04 February. Old Region 720 (N13,
L=178), which produced several major flares during its previous
transit, is due to rotate onto the visible disk on 05 February.
Expect increased solar activity levels following the return of this
active region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains slightly elevated, ranging between 500 - 550 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    05/05/15
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 082
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb  080/085/100
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 101
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  008/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01