:Product: 20050209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 732 (N14E28) produced a
C1.2 flare at 08/2144Z.  New Region 734 (S04E71) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period between O600Z and 0900Z.  This elevated activity was
due to persistence of a coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind
speed at ACE fluctuated around 700 to 750 km/s throughout the
period.  Bz was oscillating between +/- 5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels with a slight chance
for isolated minor storm periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 109
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 099
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  027/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  016/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  010/015-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10