:Product: 20050213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 733 (S09E01) generated
the day's largest event, a C2 x-ray flare at 1040UTC with associated
Type II sweep. At this time there is no indication of a CME. Region 734 (S04E17) had the other C-class flare, a C1/Sf at
1458UTC. Region 733 is the most dynamic of the five regions currently
visible. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and
unimpressive.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 733 may produce additional C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at GOES was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 116
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 100
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05