:Product: 20050217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 734 (S05W34) produced a
C4.9 flare at 2338UTC with an associated halo CME traveling at a
velocity of approximately 900 km/s.  Region 735 (S07W06) is the
largest group on the disk but was stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M class flare from Region 735.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 18 February due to a coronal
hole.  Activity should remain at unsettled to active levels for 19
February due to possible effects from today's CME.  Conditions
should decrease to unsettled  on 20 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 111
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 101
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/15
Minor storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           25/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05