:Product: 20050308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Mar 08 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The largest event of the
period was a B5.4 flare that occurred at 08/0309Z from Region 742
(S06E56).  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Solar
wind speed at ACE increased to a maximum near 820 km/s at about
08/0810Z and declined to 700 km/s by the end of the reporting
period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
at high latitudes on 09 March.  On 10 March, conditions are expected
to be mostly unsettled as the coronal hole high speed stream rotates
out of a geoeffective position.  On 11 March, conditions are
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 094
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  028/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  015/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  012/020-008/015-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01