:Product: 20050319RSGA.txt :Issued: 2005 Mar 19 2210 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 743 (S08W57) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest was an impulsive C2/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0707 UTC. A Type II radio sweep accompanied this flare and had an estimated shock velocity of 413 km/s. SOHO/LASCO imagery did not depict any significant CME activity near the time of the event. Region 743 continues to exhibit a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 742 (S06 L=160) rotated off the solar west limb today. No new regions were numbered today IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An isolated period of minor storming occurred between 19/0000 and 0300 UTC. This was most likely due to a sustained southward Bz and a slight increase in the solar wind speeds to approximately 460 km/s. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Mar 093 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 099 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 005/008-004/008-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/05