:Product: 20050409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Apr 09 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 751 (S07W74)
produced several B-class flares during the period.  This region has
grown in both sunspot count and white light area coverage and is now
a Dai beta spot group.  The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed two CME's
today off the SW limb.  The first was around 09/0826 UTC and the
second was at 09/1350 UTC.  Both appear to be from a backside event.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled for 10-12 April. 
Periods of active conditions are possible on 11-12 April due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 088
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  008/010-010/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05