:Product: 20050412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Apr 12 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 1721 UTC
from newly assigned Region 752 (N00E76). There were additional
B-class events during the past 24 hours and all of these were from
752 as well. At this time Region 752 is a small, D-type sunspot
region.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (13-15 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Conditions were at mostly active to minor storm levels during the
past 24 hours with a major storm interval at high latitudes from
0000-0300 UTC. The enhanced activity is being driven by a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 36 hours (13 April to 14
April 1200 UTC) due to persistent coronal hole effects. Conditions
should begin to decline partway through the 14th and should be quiet
to unsettled by the 3rd day (15th).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 085
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  020/025-012/018-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           35/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10