:Product: 20050414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Apr 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Region
752 (N01E43) showed slight growth during the period and a weak gamma
magnetic structure is visible in the central sunspot cluster.  This
region was limited to low level B-class flare production.  Region
754 (S08E51) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 752 is complex enough to generate a
C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  Elevated
levels are due to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
active conditions are possible on 15 April as the geoeffective high
speed stream wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 085
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 095
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  018/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  010/012-005/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01