:Product: 20050417RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Apr 17 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Newly numbered Region 755
(S11E76) generated three C-class events on 17 Apr, two near 1300Z
and one at 2054Z.  All other regions remain steady.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 755 has the continued potential to produce C-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  There's a chance for
isolated periods of active levels as a high-speed stream from a
small, but well defined coronal hole rotates into potentially
geoeffective range from 19 - 20 Apr.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M    10/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Apr 084
Predicted   18 Apr-20 Apr  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        17 Apr 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  005/008-010/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    02/05/05