:Product: 20050418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Apr 18 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 755 (S11E67) produced a
C4.6 flare at 17/2107 UTC.  An associated CME was first observed on
LASCO C2 imagery at 17/2126 UTC off the east limb.  The CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at mid latitudes.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
conditions due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream
moving into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Apr 081
Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        18 Apr 092
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr  005/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  010/012-008/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05