:Product: 20050422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Apr 22 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new
region rotating around the east limb at S05 may have been the source
of a CME observed off the southeast limb at around 22/0630Z. The few
sunspot groups on the visible disk are small and stable, and
exhibited no significant changes or activity this period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A new region rotating around the east limb at S05 may
elevate activity levels slightly on 24 and 25 April.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods. A
weak disturbance is expected on 22 and 23 April as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 077
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 091
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  015/020-010/020-005/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01