:Product: 20050506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 May 06 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S08W79)
produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1128 UTC. This region continues to
slowly decay. Region 758 (S07E23) generated a more significant
flare, a C8/2f at 06/1705 UTC. Although smaller in x-ray output,
this flare was of long-duration and associated with a type II sweep
and an apparent Earth-directed CME. Both of these regions also
produced smaller flares over the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class activity is expected in Regions 756 and 758.
Another small M-class flare is possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A small Sudden Impulse
(8 nT) was observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 08/1306 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. Increased
activity is possible on 08 and 09 May in response to the CME
discussed in Part IA. The field may also be affected by a coronal
hole high speed stream beginning on 09 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 110
Predicted   07 May-09 May  105/095/090
90 Day Mean        06 May 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  010/012-020/025-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/50/50
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05