:Product: 20050507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 May 08 1530 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S07W88)
produced an impulsive M1 flare at 07/0813 UTC. Region 758 (S07E10)
appears to have simplified somewhat over the past 24 hours and has
generated only a few small B and C-class flares. A new region
rotating onto the disk near NE11 has produced a few B and C-class
flares as well. Sunspots associated with this region have not yet
been reported and the region is not yet numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. B and C-class flares are possible in Regions 756 and
758, as well as the new region near N11E90. Another small M-class
flare is possible from 756.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A small Sudden Impulse was observed
at many ground locations (6 nT at Boulder) at about 07/1844 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active over the next three days
(08-10 May) due to the influence of the CME on 06 May and an
anticipated coronal hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 100
Predicted   08 May-10 May  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        07 May 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  020/025-020/025-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05