:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 May 09 2302 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 758 (S09W23) produced
five C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these
was a C8 at 1103 UTC. The region has shown steady development during
the past 24 hours, especially in the leader spots. New Region 760
(S06W14) has been identified as a distinct region to the east of
758. Region 759 (N14E60) is the largest group on the disk with area
of 540 millionths but only managed to produce a B-class event. New
Region 761 (N04E61) was assigned today and is a small, H-type group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days (10-12 May). There is a fair
chance for isolated M-class events from Region 758 or Region 759.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active for 08/2100-08/2400
UTC. Unsettled levels prevailed from 08/2400-09/0600 UTC, and
conditions were quiet for the remainder of the period. Solar wind
data show a steady decline in velocity, which was initially at about
730 km/s and decreased to about 550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods at high
latitudes for the next 24 hours (10 May). Conditions should be
mostly unsettled for 11 May and quiet to unsettled for 12 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 110
Predicted   10 May-12 May  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        09 May 091
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  038/064
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  010/020-010/015-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/15/05