:Product: 0510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 May 10 2225 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 758 (S10W36)
produced an M1/Sf at 0523 UTC. The region has continued to develop
and has formed a delta configuration in the middle spots. The group
produced additional C-class events during the day. Region 759
(N12E50) also produced several C-class events and has some magnetic
complexity. New Region 762 (S08E18) emerged on the disk today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days with Region 758 and Region 759 as
the most likely sources for energetic events. There is a slight
chance for a major flare or proton producing flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled during the
past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 119
Predicted   11 May-13 May  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        10 May 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  010/012-005/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05