:Product: 20050513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 May 13 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 759 (N12E06) produced
an M8/2b flare at 13/1657 UTC. The flare was associated with
significant radio output that included type II/IV sweeps and a 2900
sfu burst at 2695 MHz. This event was also associated with an
apparent Earth-directed CME. Region 758 (S09W81)  only managed to
generate a few minor flares over the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Most activity is expected to occur in Regions 758 and
759.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is enhanced from the M8 flare
discussed in Part IA but has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours.
Storm conditions are possible on 15 and 16 May due to the CME
associated with the M8 flare in Region 759. There is a chance that
the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could surpass the 10 pfu event
threshold on 14 May due to the same major event.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    15/10/05
Proton     30/20/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 126
Predicted   14 May-16 May  120/110/100
90 Day Mean        13 May 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  025/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  012/015-050/075-030/040
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/50/50
Major-severe storm    05/30/30
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor storm           10/60/60
Major-severe storm    05/30/30