:Product: 20050520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 May 20 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 759
(N12W88) is transiting the solar west limb and quiescent throughout
the period.  Region 765 (N09E51) was responsible for several low
level B-class flares today.  Magnetically, this region remains
simply structured.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storming levels
today.  The most likely source for the major storming conditions was
the full halo CME seen early on 17 May.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field should be
at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 May 084
Predicted   21 May-23 May  080/085/090
90 Day Mean        20 May 091
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  006/010-006/008-004/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01