:Product: 20050525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 May 25 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity continues at very low levels. Occasional
B-class flares were observed in Regions 766 (N14E23) and 767
(S07E26). These two active regions are the only sunspot groups on
the visible disk, and exhibited little change this period. A large
CME off the east limb was observed on LASCO imagery during the
latter half of 24 May. The likely source of this CME was backsided.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 767.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near
360 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods on 26 May.
Occasional active periods are expected on 27 and 28 May as a coronal
hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 084
Predicted   26 May-28 May  085/085/095
90 Day Mean        25 May 090
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  005/010-010/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/40/50
Minor storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/10