:Product: 20050605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jun 05 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
three C-class events. The first was a C2 at 2225 UTC from newly
numbered Region 776 (S05E71). The second was a C1/Sf at 0328 UTC
from Region 772 (S18W18), and the third was a C3 at 1350 UTC from
Region 776. Region 776 rotated into view today as a moderate-sized
D-type group and was the most active region on the disk. Region 772
(S18W18) appears to have become less complex during the past 24
hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from 772 or 776 during the next three days (06-08 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal
hole, beginning at about 2300 UTC. The high speed stream resulted in
increased geomagnetic activity and led to a single, minor storm
interval from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been quiet to unsettled
since 0900 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storm periods for the next two days (06-07 June), due to persistence
of the high speed stream and due to possible effects from the recent
eruptive solar events of 03/0411 UTC (M1/CME) and 03/2355 UTC
(C6/Type II/Type IV). Predominantly unsettled levels are expected
for the third day (08 June).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 105
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  015/020-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05