:Product: 20050610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jun 10 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 772 (S18W84)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 x-ray event that
occurred at 10/0310Z.  Region 775 (N08W05) underwent a slight decay
in penumbral coverage today.  The southern appendage off the
dominant spot in the cluster continues to exhibit delta
characteristics. No flares were observed from this region during the
period.  Region 776 (S06E07) also appeared to show a slight decay
over the interval although the region continues to depict moderate
magnetic complexity.  Region 777 (N05E57) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 775 and 776 are both capable of producing an
isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 
Beginning late on 11 June, isolated active conditions may occur due
to the arrival of the very faint partial halo CME that occurred on 8
June.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 114
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun  110/100/100
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  003/007-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05