:Product: 20050612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jun 12 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 775 (N10W32)
produced two C-class flares, a C3.5/Sf at 0236 UTC and a C3.0/Sf at
1609 UTC.  Both flares were long duration events.  No significant
development was observed from the regions on the active disk, and no
new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance of M-class activity from Region 775.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  A minor
transient was observed at ACE at 0650 UTC, followed by an increase
in solar wind speed from 300 km/s to around 500 km/s.  Subsequent
active conditions were observed.  At 1600 UTC Bz began a period of
consistently southward orientation of -15 nT, which continued to the
time of this report and led to minor storming late in the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  Continued southward
Bz observed late on 12 June will likely result in minor and isolated
major storming early on 13 June.  Activity should subside late on 13
June.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 and 15 June,
with isolated active conditions possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 103
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/025-008/020-006/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           30/10/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           30/10/10
Major-severe storm    20/05/05