:Product: 20050618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jun 18 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S08E52) produced
several low C-class flares. Occasional surging and numerous
brightness fluctuations were noted in this D-type group throughout
the period. A C1 flare was also observed in Region 779 (S18W32).
Region 779 is a moderate size E-type group in slow growth.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Both Regions 779 and 780 are capable of C-class
activity with a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated at near 500 km/s, but is in slow decline. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV protons at
geosynchronous orbit remain elevated, but are slowly returning to
background levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with the chance for isolated minor
storm periods. Transient flow from the M4 flare and CME on 16 June
may create occasional storm periods on 19 June. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on 20 and 21 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 090
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  015/020-010/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01