:Product: 20050627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jun 27 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  New Region 781 (N16E76)
produced an impulsive C2.8 flare at 0848 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 781 may produce C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet, with solar wind speed ending the
period at 400 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained above high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 28 June, from the possible
effects of a weak CME shock associated with the disappearing
filament observed on 25 June.  Activity should subside to quiet
conditions on 29-30 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 077
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  012/012-008/008-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01