:Product: 20050703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jul 03 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C4/Sf at 0456 UTC from Region 787 (S10W48). Region 787 is a small,
simple, D-type group. Two additional, low level C-class events were
produced during the day; both of these were from Region 782 (S17W45)
which appears to be decaying slowly. Region 783 (S03E04) continued
to grow and is currently the largest group on the disk, but did not
produce any flares. The region has developed significant spots with
penumbra between the leader and trailer parts of the group and
appears to have a beta-gamma magnetic class. Region 786 ( N12E48) is
the second largest group on the disk and also appears to have some
magnetic complexity, but only managed to produce a B-flare. Region
785 (S18W20), which produced several C-flares yesterday, was quiet
and decaying during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to
predominantly low for the next three days (04-06 July) but there is
a chance for an isolated M-class flare, with Region 783 or Region
786 the most likely sources.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially active but has been quiet to
unsettled since 03/0600 UTC. The high speed stream continues to
weaken as velocities steadily decreased today; values at forecast
issue time were around 480-500 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for some isolated
active periods for the first day (04 July). Conditions should
decline to predominantly quiet for the second and third days (05-06
July).
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 130
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 095
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  010/015-005/007-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05