:Product: 20050710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jul 10 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 786 (N10W43)
produced an M2 flare at 09/2206 UTC with an associated full halo CME
observed in LASCO imagery.  Region 783 (S03W88) produced a C9 flare
at 10/1516 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (869 km/s). 
No LASCO imagery of this event was available at the time of issue.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 786 may produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.  A
transient shock from the CME activity on 07 July was observed by ACE
at approximately 10/0300 UTC.  Following the shock, there was a
period of sustained southward Bz resulting in major storming in the
period from 1200 to 1500 UTC.  There was a proton enhancement in the
greater than 10 MeV protons associated with the M2.8 flare on 09
July; however, proton levels remained under event thresholds.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated periods
of major storm conditions for 11 July due to the arrival of a
transient shock from the CME associated with the M2 flare on 09
July.  Predominantly active conditions are expected on 12 July,
declining to mostly unsettled on 13 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 102
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  100/095/095
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  028/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  025/050-020/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/15/10