:Product: 20050712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jul 12 2320 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N11W70)
produced numerous C-class flares and two M1 flares this period. A C8
flare was observed at 12/0802Z with an associated faint CME. The
first of two M1 flares was observed at 12/1306Z. Weak radio
emissions and another faint CME was associated with this event. A
more complex and long duration M1 flare occurred at 12/1624Z. Radio
emissions included a 750 sfu Tenflare and Type IV radio sweep. A
bright CME was observed on LASCO imagery. Although most of the
ejecta was westward directed, faint extensions of this CME were
visible over the north pole and over the east limb. Region 786
maintains a complex beta-gamma-delta configuration as it approaches
the west limb. The remaining regions on the visible disk were
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class activity is possible from Region 786.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.  A
discontinuity in the solar wind plasma parameters at around 12/0400Z
was likely the arrival of transient flow from the 9 July CME. Solar
wind speed increased from 400 km/s to near 550 km/s. The IMF Bz was
southward for extended periods of time before rotating northward at
around 1600Z. Minor to major storming was observed at high latitudes
between 12/0000 - 1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated active
periods are possible on 13 and 14 July. Minor storm conditions are
possible on 15 July associated with today's CME activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    40/40/10
Class X    10/10/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 096
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  090/085/080
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  030/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  015/018-008/012-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/40
Minor storm           20/10/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/10