:Product: 20050719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jul 19 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The visible
solar disk remains spotless.  No significant activity was observed
during the period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated active levels.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux has steadily decreased from slightly
elevated levels at the beginning of the period, ending the period at
background levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels.  Isolated major
to severe storming conditions are possible on 20 July due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  A decrease to
predominantly active conditions can be expected on 21 July, followed
by unsettled levels on 22 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 071
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  019/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  020/030-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           35/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/05