:Product: 0727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jul 27 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  An M3.7 flare was
observed at 27/0502 UTC with an associated Type II and Type IV radio
sweep, and a 800 sfu Tenflare.  This event was correlated with a
full halo CME observed by LASCO imagery from around the east limb. 
This activity indicates the likely return of old Region 786
(N10,L=56) which is due to return on the visible solar disk 28 July.
The only visible numbered spot group on the disk at this time is
Region 791 (N13W06).  It remains a beta magnetic classification and
has decreased slightly in both area and sunspot count.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  The returning region on the east limb may produce C-
and M-class events with a chance for an isolated X-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions.  In the past 24
hours the solar wind speed has increased from around 300 km/s to
above 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating southward to -12 nT. 
This may be the onset of a high speed stream from a recurrent
coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active
periods as the coronal hole high speed stream continues to be
geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     50/50/50
PCAF       Yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 091
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 097
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/015-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05