:Product: 0729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Jul 29 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 792 (N11E66)
produced today's only M-class event, an M4/Sf at 2208 UTC. The event
was associated with a type II radio sweep and a fast CME that was
centered on the east limb. Region 792 also produced a C3 x-ray event
at 1732 UTC which was associated with erupting prominence material
from the east limb. Observations of Region 792 indicate a 430 
millionths, compact, beta-gamma sunspot group. New Region 793 
(N14E11) emerged on the disk today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (30 July - 01 August). There is also
a slight chance for a major flare from Region 792.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream
from a coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues
in progress. The event, which began at 27/2300 UTC attained a new
maximum of 41 PFU at 29/1715 UTC. There appears to be an influx of
new energetic particles in response to the M4/CME event of 28/2208
UTC which is prolonging this proton event.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
24 hours (30 July). Conditions should decline to generally unsettled
for 31 July and should be quiet to unsettled for 01 August. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is likely to continue through the
first day (30 July), but should decline thereafter unless additional
strong, eruptive events occur from Region 792.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     90/20/15
PCAF       Yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 104
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug  110/115/120
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  018/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  010/015-007/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/05