:Product: 0801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Aug 01 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 792
(N12E25) produced the largest flare during the period, a long
duration M1/1f flare that occurred at 01/1351Z.  This event
generated an associated Tenflare (290 sfu), a Type IV radio sweep,
and a CME that may have a weak geoeffective component.  Region 792
underwent a decrease in sunspot number however, sunspot area has
remained the same.  This region continues to exhibit
beta-gamma-delta magnetic features.  Region 794 (S11E60) produced
the second largest flare during the period, a C5 x-ray event that
occurred at 01/1221Z.  This region has shown growth in sunspot area
over the interval.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Region 792 is capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The elevated
activity may be attributed to a weak transient that was observed at
the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0500Z.  The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 27/2300Z ended at 01/1040Z, a maximum
of 41 pfu occurred at 29/1715Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 04 August due to a glancing blow
from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f flare that occurred
today.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 111
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  110/105/105
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  012/015-005/005-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/30
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/35
Minor storm           15/05/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05