:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Aug 02 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. 
Region 794 (S11E47) produced the largest flare of the period, an
M4/1n event that occurred at 02/1831Z.  There was an associated
Tenflare and a Type II Radio sweep.  An associated CME on the east
solar limb was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 02/1854Z and may
have a weak geoeffective component.  This region also produced
multiple B and C-class flares during the period and underwent growth
in both magnetic complexity and sunspot count since yesterday. 
Region 792 (N12E12) produced a C6/Sn at 02/2016Z, prior to this
event activity was limited to minor B-class events.  The delta
structure in the northern portion of the spot cluster and the total
sunspot area have shown decay during the period.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels.  Regions 792 and 794 have the potential of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 August.  The CME
activity from yesterday and today could lead to isolated minor
storming conditions on 04 August.  Quiet to unsettled conditions
should return by 05 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 110
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  018/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  005/005-015/020-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/15
Minor storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor storm           05/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/15/01