:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Aug 06 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 794 (S12W10) produced a
C1.1 flare at 05/2044 UTC.  Region 792 (N10W41) has decayed into a
Cso group.  Region 795 (N12E00) has developed into a Cso Beta group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. 
Minor storming was observed at high latitudes between 06/0000 - 1200
UTC.  Solar wind data indicate the onset of a coronal hole high
speed stream beginning about 05/2200.  The solar wind speed remains
elevated at approximately 550 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor
storm conditions for the next three days (07-09 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 093
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 096
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  022/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  012/015-010/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/10