:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Aug 14 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 797
(S13E16) continues to show steady growth in sunspot area although
flare production was limited to minor B-class activity.  Region 798
(S05E54) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The ACE
spacecraft indicated periods of southward Bz early in the period
which coincide with the observed active periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Active conditions may
be possible late on 16 August due to the onset of a recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream.  Isolated periods of minor to major
storming are possible on 17 August in association with the expected
maximum solar wind speeds from the coronal hole .
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 075
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  075/075/080
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  006/010-012/015-016/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/45
Minor storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/10/10