:Product: 0823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Aug 23 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 798 (S12W75)
produced an M2/Sf flare at 23/1444 UTC. As in previous M flares in
this region, it was associated with significant radio output that
included type II/IV sweep activity and a CME.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 798 could produce another M-class flare as it
rotates around the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event remains in progress: start time 22/2040 UTC and
preliminary maximum of 330 pfu at 23/1045 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled until the arrival of the first CME
that occurred early on Aug 22. Storm conditions are possible on Aug
24 and 25 due to CME activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    50/30/10
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     90/50/10
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 112
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  105/100/090
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 095
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  020/030-020/030-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/60/60
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10