:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Aug 29 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels.  Region 803
(N11E14) continues to decay and was limited to minor B-class flare
activity.  The delta structure seen yesterday has eroded away
although gamma structures remain evident.  New Region 806 (S17E50)
emerged today and produced the largest flare of the period, a C1
x-ray flare occurring at 29/1703Z.  This regions appears to have
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics.  A full halo CME was observed
on LASCO imagery beginning at 29/1054Z, it has been determined to be
a back-sided event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Active conditions were observed between 29/0300 and 0600Z following
several hours of sustained southward Bz.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 30-31 August.  Active
conditions are possible on 01 September due to the onset of a
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 089
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  090/090/085
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  005/008-008/012-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05