:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Sep 03 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 805 (S11W17)
produced a B6 flare at 03/0410 UTC.  There are no other regions with
spots on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There is a slight chance for a C-class event from region 805.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. 
Geomagnetic storming occurred between 03/0000 - 0600 UTC after a
period of sustained southward Bz.  Solar wind speed showed a steady
decline with initial values around 675 km/s to day-end values around
550 km/s.  The total interplanetary magnetic field at ACE declined
throughout the period, ending the day at about 5 nT.  The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 September. 
Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storming is
expected on 05 September due to the possible effects of transient
flow from the CME on 01 September.  Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on 06 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 074
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  075/080/080
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 093
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  024/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  022/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  008/015-012/015-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05