:Product: 0906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Sep 06 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity levels increased to moderate this
period. A long duration M1 flare and an associated CME was in
progress on the southeast limb at the time of this issue. The likely
source of this event is old active Region 798 (S09, L=217), which is
expected to rotate into view on 07 Sep. Old Region 798 was
responsible for significant flare activity during its last transit
across the visible disk, and was the likely source of several
farside CMEs during the past two weeks. Region 805 (S12W59), the
only active region with sunspots on the visible disk, remained quiet
this period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Old Region 798 is rotating onto the visible disk
near S09, and is expected to significantly increase solar activity
levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 07 and 08 Sep.
Isolated active periods are possible on 09 Sep due to a high speed
coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    40/50/50
Class X    05/10/10
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 083
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  090/100/105
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 091
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  005/005-005/005-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05