:Product: 0923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2005 Sep 23 2204 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2005
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels.  Region 810
(N09W06) produced a single C1/Sf flare today at 0559Z.  This region
underwent gradual growth during the period and is currently
depicting magnetic beta-gamma characteristics.  Newly numbered
Region 812 (S01E73), was responsible for an eruptive prominence on
the east solar limb just prior to becoming a visible CSO beta
sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 810 has the complexity to produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A brief active period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer
between 23/0600Z and 0900Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 083
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 094
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01